I think “probability of sentience”*”expected welfare conditional on sentience” >> (1 - “probability of sentience”)*”expected welfare conditional on non-sentience”, such that the expected welfare can be estimated from the 1st expression. However, I would say the expected welfare conditional on non-sentience is not exactly 0. For this to be the case, one would have to be certain that a welfare of exactly 0 follows from failing to satisfy the sentience criteria, which is not possible. Yet, in practice, it could still be the case that there is a decent probability mass on a welfare close to 0.
Thanks, Toby! Credits go to Michael.
I think “probability of sentience”*”expected welfare conditional on sentience” >> (1 - “probability of sentience”)*”expected welfare conditional on non-sentience”, such that the expected welfare can be estimated from the 1st expression. However, I would say the expected welfare conditional on non-sentience is not exactly 0. For this to be the case, one would have to be certain that a welfare of exactly 0 follows from failing to satisfy the sentience criteria, which is not possible. Yet, in practice, it could still be the case that there is a decent probability mass on a welfare close to 0.