Thanks, Michael. I agree that would further decrease the impact of interventions saving children if impact after 5 or 10 years dropped to 0. On the other hand, I think it is super unlikely that the agricultural land per capita in low income countries becomes negligible in 5 or 10 years even conditional on remote work being fully automated then. So I would say donating to GiveWell’s top charities is still a good way of increasing agricultural land under short AI timelines. At the same time, I believe buying beef is more robust against short AI timelines.I guess the resulting increase in agricultural land happens over a few years, such that impact dropping to 0 after 5 or 10 years does not affect its cost-effectiveness.
Also, the primary beneficiaries of GiveWell-recommended charities are mostly infants and children, who eat less.
Thanks, Michael. I agree that would further decrease the impact of interventions saving children if impact after 5 or 10 years dropped to 0. On the other hand, I think it is super unlikely that the agricultural land per capita in low income countries becomes negligible in 5 or 10 years even conditional on remote work being fully automated then. So I would say donating to GiveWell’s top charities is still a good way of increasing agricultural land under short AI timelines. At the same time, I believe buying beef is more robust against short AI timelines.I guess the resulting increase in agricultural land happens over a few years, such that impact dropping to 0 after 5 or 10 years does not affect its cost-effectiveness.