I personally only care about the expected (posterior) impact. One can get a smaller expected impact by positing a more certain prior impact, but I do not know what would be the justification for being a priori very confident about the impact being 0.
I agree the interventions I considered are not robustly beneficial in expectation. However, I would not single out interventions changing the consumption of animal-based food (among the ones I analysed, all besides the broiler welfare and cage-free campaigns, and HSI). I estimate broiler welfare and cage-free corporate campaigns benefit soil animals 444 and 28.2 times as much as they benefit chickens.
Jim Buhler clarified what would be needed to neglect the uncertain nearterm effects of interventions targeting animals. I think the effects after 100 years or so are negligible, but that people neglecting nearterm effects due to their uncertainty should neglect more uncertain longterm effects even more.
Thanks, Michael.
I personally only care about the expected (posterior) impact. One can get a smaller expected impact by positing a more certain prior impact, but I do not know what would be the justification for being a priori very confident about the impact being 0.
I agree the interventions I considered are not robustly beneficial in expectation. However, I would not single out interventions changing the consumption of animal-based food (among the ones I analysed, all besides the broiler welfare and cage-free campaigns, and HSI). I estimate broiler welfare and cage-free corporate campaigns benefit soil animals 444 and 28.2 times as much as they benefit chickens.
Jim Buhler clarified what would be needed to neglect the uncertain nearterm effects of interventions targeting animals. I think the effects after 100 years or so are negligible, but that people neglecting nearterm effects due to their uncertainty should neglect more uncertain longterm effects even more.