I think you’re trying way too hard to rescue a term that just kinda sucks and should probably be abandoned. There is no way to reliably tell in advance if a try is “the first critical try”: we can only tell when a try is not critical, if an AI rebels and is defeated. Also, how does this deal with probabilities? does it kick in when the probability of winning is over 50%? 90%? 99%?
The AI also doesn’t know reliably whether a try is critical. It could mistakenly think it can take over the world when it can’t, or it could be overcautious thinking it can’t take over the world when it can. In the latter case, you could succeed completely on your “first critical try” while still having a malevolent AI that will kill you a few tries later.
The main effect seems to be an emotive one, by evoking the idea that “we have to get it right on the first try”. But the first “critical try” could be version number billion trillion, which is a lot less scary.
I do like your decisive strategic advantage term, I think it could replace “first critical try” entirely with no losses.
I think you’re trying way too hard to rescue a term that just kinda sucks and should probably be abandoned. There is no way to reliably tell in advance if a try is “the first critical try”: we can only tell when a try is not critical, if an AI rebels and is defeated. Also, how does this deal with probabilities? does it kick in when the probability of winning is over 50%? 90%? 99%?
The AI also doesn’t know reliably whether a try is critical. It could mistakenly think it can take over the world when it can’t, or it could be overcautious thinking it can’t take over the world when it can. In the latter case, you could succeed completely on your “first critical try” while still having a malevolent AI that will kill you a few tries later.
The main effect seems to be an emotive one, by evoking the idea that “we have to get it right on the first try”. But the first “critical try” could be version number billion trillion, which is a lot less scary.
I do like your decisive strategic advantage term, I think it could replace “first critical try” entirely with no losses.