Chinese companies look a lot more competitive in AI than they did when Situational Awareness was published, even when accounting for the likely impacts of distillation, which I think counts somewhat towards his thesis. But there is little or no evidence of a scaling-pilled AI push from China. My impression is that overall capex/funding for Chinese AI is pretty tiny compared to for the US and state support/industrial policy for AI or semiconductors doesn’t look like a big deal though I don’t have the full numbers on hand. And if anything the Chinese government is getting in the way of Chinese AI companies by discouraging/delaying Nvidia H200 imports, treating AI chips as a normal industry where helping to build up the national champion Huawei is more important than racing to near-term AGI.
Chinese companies look a lot more competitive in AI than they did when Situational Awareness was published, even when accounting for the likely impacts of distillation, which I think counts somewhat towards his thesis. But there is little or no evidence of a scaling-pilled AI push from China. My impression is that overall capex/funding for Chinese AI is pretty tiny compared to for the US and state support/industrial policy for AI or semiconductors doesn’t look like a big deal though I don’t have the full numbers on hand. And if anything the Chinese government is getting in the way of Chinese AI companies by discouraging/delaying Nvidia H200 imports, treating AI chips as a normal industry where helping to build up the national champion Huawei is more important than racing to near-term AGI.