I’m really curious to know what accounts for this significant difference in estimates (10.1 billion vs 18.8 billion). It’s a big difference, and yet you are both relying on FAOSTAT data. Do you have an idea?
Rethink Priorities (RP) assumed 76.3 billion broilers were slaughtered in 2023, and FAOSTAT says 76.3 billion chickens were slaughtered for meat in 2023. Some of the chickens slaughtered for meat not being broilers (they could be laying hens, breeders, or male chicks) would contribute towards RP having overestimated the number of broilers.
I think my estimate for the number of broilers is higher than it should be due FAOSTAT overestimating the number of chickens. They say the following about livestock numbers (emphasis mine).
The data on livestock numbers are intended to cover all domestic animals irrespective of their age and the place or purpose of their breeding. Estimates have been made for non-reporting countries as well as for countries reporting incomplete data. However, in certain countries, data for chickens, ducks and turkeys do not yet seem to represent the total number of these birds [so I may have underestimated the number of chickens, and therefore ]. Certain other countries give a single figure for all poultry; data for these countries are shown under “Chickens”.
On the other hand, I would expect the vast majority of poultry birds to be chickens, so I do not think the above alone would explain my estimate being 1.86 times RP’s.
Another consideration is that RP used a single value for the harvest age and mortality of broilers. In reality, they both vary, and the mean weighted by broilers slaughtered could be lower than what RP assumed, which would lead to a lower number of broilers alive.
I’m really curious to know what accounts for this significant difference in estimates (10.1 billion vs 18.8 billion). It’s a big difference, and yet you are both relying on FAOSTAT data. Do you have an idea?
Hi Axelle,
Rethink Priorities (RP) assumed 76.3 billion broilers were slaughtered in 2023, and FAOSTAT says 76.3 billion chickens were slaughtered for meat in 2023. Some of the chickens slaughtered for meat not being broilers (they could be laying hens, breeders, or male chicks) would contribute towards RP having overestimated the number of broilers.
I think my estimate for the number of broilers is higher than it should be due FAOSTAT overestimating the number of chickens. They say the following about livestock numbers (emphasis mine).
On the other hand, I would expect the vast majority of poultry birds to be chickens, so I do not think the above alone would explain my estimate being 1.86 times RP’s.
Another consideration is that RP used a single value for the harvest age and mortality of broilers. In reality, they both vary, and the mean weighted by broilers slaughtered could be lower than what RP assumed, which would lead to a lower number of broilers alive.