Your suggestion of having multiple individuals or groups independently calculate the expected value of an intervention is an interesting one. It could increase objectivity and reduce the influence of motivated reasoning or self-serving biases and help us end up with not only better judgments but several times more research & considerations.
Do you know of any EA organizations that are considering it or any prior debate about this idea in the forum?
It would be interesting to see if this method would lead to more accurate expected value calculations in practice. Additionally, I am curious about how the process of comparing results and coming to a consensus would be handled in this approach.
Your suggestion of having multiple individuals or groups independently calculate the expected value of an intervention is an interesting one. It could increase objectivity and reduce the influence of motivated reasoning or self-serving biases and help us end up with not only better judgments but several times more research & considerations.
Do you know of any EA organizations that are considering it or any prior debate about this idea in the forum?
It would be interesting to see if this method would lead to more accurate expected value calculations in practice. Additionally, I am curious about how the process of comparing results and coming to a consensus would be handled in this approach.