I agree this is useful and I often use it when forecasting. It’s important to emphasize that this is a useful prior, though, since Gott appears to treat it as an all-things-considered posterior.
I have used this method with great success to estimate, among other things, the probability that friends will break up with their romantic partners.
I agree this is useful and I often use it when forecasting. It’s important to emphasize that this is a useful prior, though, since Gott appears to treat it as an all-things-considered posterior.
William Poundstone uses this example, too, to illustrate the “Copernican principle” in his popular book on the doomsday argument.