Today, Miles Brundage published the following, referencing this post:
A few years ago, I argued to effective altruists (who are quite interested in how long it may take for certain AI capabilities to exist) that forecasting isn’t necessarily the best use of their time. Many of the policy actions that should be taken are fairly independent of the exact timeline. However, I have since changed my mind and think that most policymakers won’t act unless they perceive the situation as urgent, and insofar as that is actually the case or could be in the future, it needs to be credibly explained why that’s the case. See: COVID and the many warnings about pandemic preparedness before that.
Today, Miles Brundage published the following, referencing this post: