That said, AI forecasting more broadly—that considers when particular AI capabilities might arise—can be more useful than examining timelines alone, and seems quite useful overall.
+1. My intuition was that forecasts on more granular capabilities would happen automatically if you want to further improve overall timeline estimates. E.g. this is my impression of what a lot of AI timeline related forecasts on Metaculus look like.
+1. My intuition was that forecasts on more granular capabilities would happen automatically if you want to further improve overall timeline estimates. E.g. this is my impression of what a lot of AI timeline related forecasts on Metaculus look like.