Relatedly, I would note that past comments on the Forum about trading on Manifold as a potentially effective way to steer money to charity may no longer be valid (or may be less valid) after May 1 than they were prior to the announcement being made. The reason is that Manifold’s “pivot” requires a much more controlled supply of its play money (mana), making Manifold at least close to a zero-sum game for traders. In contrast, a past comment may have been written when the mana printing presses were in high gear, at which time the expected value (in mana) of trading on Manifold was meaningfully positive due to subsidies, free mana, etc.
Relatedly, I would note that past comments on the Forum about trading on Manifold as a potentially effective way to steer money to charity may no longer be valid (or may be less valid) after May 1 than they were prior to the announcement being made. The reason is that Manifold’s “pivot” requires a much more controlled supply of its play money (mana), making Manifold at least close to a zero-sum game for traders. In contrast, a past comment may have been written when the mana printing presses were in high gear, at which time the expected value (in mana) of trading on Manifold was meaningfully positive due to subsidies, free mana, etc.