The role of the EA movement in the case of FTX seems surely to meet the level of influence for some of the impact win’s that EA has had so far here.
Perhaps most prominently, the movement:
Gave the idea of ‘Earning to Give’ to Sam
Provided a primary motivation to Sam and other FTX leadership to build the exchange
For example, when comparing to the case of Sendwave, the influence seems at least comparable and if not larger e.g. played a motivational role in founding a company, for the purpose of improving the world. (I’m not familiar with Wave’s founders motivations, so could be wrong here)
In welfare terms alone, the impact of FTX’s collapse on it’s customers seems plausibly comparable to some of the impact win’s of the movement to date. I.e. of the order of $1bn in lost funds. Given this, I think that an honest impact evaluation of the EA movement would include the harm caused to customers through FTX’s collapse.
This is relevant not for blame assignment, but because it’s very decision-relevant to EA’s mission of improving the world. For example, when in the future deciding how much to emphasise harm avoidance when encouraging the (good and novel) idea of Earning to Give.
I think that an honest impact evaluation of the EA movement would include the harm caused to customers through FTX’s collapse.
Agreed. However:
In welfare terms alone, the impact of FTX’s collapse on it’s customers seems plausibly comparable to some of the impact win’s of the movement to date. I.e. of the order of $1bn in lost funds.
Are you talking about welfare terms or financial terms? Because $1bn in lost savings of FTX customers seems very different in welfare terms to $1bn spent on bed-nets etc. I think there are strong reasons FTX shouldn’t have acted the way it did, but suggesting these two things are comparable in welfare terms because they are similar in financial terms seems like an error to me.
Yeah I agree, I just mean that $1bn in funds lost to customers across the world is plausibly comparable in welfare terms to other wins on that list. E.g. dividing by 10 to account for differences in income of those affected, it would be around the amount attributed to GiveDirectly on the EA impact page.
(without wanting to make a very direct crude comparison, or getting into the details of that)
I’m also pretty hesitant to attempt to make direct crude comparisons - and I’ll say again that I think there are strong reasons FTX shouldn’t have acted as it did in addition to the direct harm to customers—but I’ll just say that I seem to remember 100x or 1000x multipliers being more common than 10x in similar scenarios.
The role of the EA movement in the case of FTX seems surely to meet the level of influence for some of the impact win’s that EA has had so far here.
Perhaps most prominently, the movement:
Gave the idea of ‘Earning to Give’ to Sam
Provided a primary motivation to Sam and other FTX leadership to build the exchange
For example, when comparing to the case of Sendwave, the influence seems at least comparable and if not larger e.g. played a motivational role in founding a company, for the purpose of improving the world. (I’m not familiar with Wave’s founders motivations, so could be wrong here)
In welfare terms alone, the impact of FTX’s collapse on it’s customers seems plausibly comparable to some of the impact win’s of the movement to date. I.e. of the order of $1bn in lost funds. Given this, I think that an honest impact evaluation of the EA movement would include the harm caused to customers through FTX’s collapse.
This is relevant not for blame assignment, but because it’s very decision-relevant to EA’s mission of improving the world. For example, when in the future deciding how much to emphasise harm avoidance when encouraging the (good and novel) idea of Earning to Give.
Agreed. However:
Are you talking about welfare terms or financial terms? Because $1bn in lost savings of FTX customers seems very different in welfare terms to $1bn spent on bed-nets etc. I think there are strong reasons FTX shouldn’t have acted the way it did, but suggesting these two things are comparable in welfare terms because they are similar in financial terms seems like an error to me.
Yeah I agree, I just mean that $1bn in funds lost to customers across the world is plausibly comparable in welfare terms to other wins on that list. E.g. dividing by 10 to account for differences in income of those affected, it would be around the amount attributed to GiveDirectly on the EA impact page.
(without wanting to make a very direct crude comparison, or getting into the details of that)
Okay yes, they may well be.
I’m also pretty hesitant to attempt to make direct crude comparisons - and I’ll say again that I think there are strong reasons FTX shouldn’t have acted as it did in addition to the direct harm to customers—but I’ll just say that I seem to remember 100x or 1000x multipliers being more common than 10x in similar scenarios.