Looks like Eliezer was similarly confused by your phrasing; your new argument (“almost no multibillion dollar frauds have ever happened, so we should do a very large update about the badness of everything that might have contributed to SBF defrauding people”) sounds very different, and makes more sense to me, though I suspect it won’t end up working.
Looks like Eliezer was similarly confused by your phrasing; your new argument (“almost no multibillion dollar frauds have ever happened, so we should do a very large update about the badness of everything that might have contributed to SBF defrauding people”) sounds very different, and makes more sense to me, though I suspect it won’t end up working.
I think you’re right—I could have avoided some confusion if I said it could lead to “multi-billion-dollar-level bad consequences”. Edited to clarify.