How much of an update is this really, though? Am I wrong that it’s already the majority utilitarian view that act utilitarianism may be theoretically correct, but individual humans don’t have the foresight to know the full consequences of every act and humans trying to work together need to be able to predict what others will do --> something like rule utilitarianism or observing constraints? Seems like the update should be about much you can know how things will turn out and whether you can get away with cutting corners.
It does seem like Sam had pathological beliefs re:St. Petersburg paradox but that seems like more than wanting to maximize EV too much—it’s not caring about the longterm future (where everyone’s inevitably dead after enough coin flips) enough. I really don’t see how that can be attributed to act utilitarianism either.
I agree that most utilitarians already thought act utilitarianism as a decision procedure was bad. Still, it’s important that more folks can see this, with higher confidence, so that this can be prevented from happening again.
I think I agree that the St Petersburg paradox issue is orthogonal to choice of decision procedure (unless placing the bet requires engaging in a norm-violating activity like fraud).
How much of an update is this really, though? Am I wrong that it’s already the majority utilitarian view that act utilitarianism may be theoretically correct, but individual humans don’t have the foresight to know the full consequences of every act and humans trying to work together need to be able to predict what others will do --> something like rule utilitarianism or observing constraints? Seems like the update should be about much you can know how things will turn out and whether you can get away with cutting corners.
It does seem like Sam had pathological beliefs re:St. Petersburg paradox but that seems like more than wanting to maximize EV too much—it’s not caring about the longterm future (where everyone’s inevitably dead after enough coin flips) enough. I really don’t see how that can be attributed to act utilitarianism either.
I agree that most utilitarians already thought act utilitarianism as a decision procedure was bad. Still, it’s important that more folks can see this, with higher confidence, so that this can be prevented from happening again.
I think I agree that the St Petersburg paradox issue is orthogonal to choice of decision procedure (unless placing the bet requires engaging in a norm-violating activity like fraud).
Risking the entire earth seems like a norm violation to me