Thanks! We’ve edited the text to include both the FAOL estimate that you mention, and the combined estimate that Vasco mentions in the other reply. (The changes might not show up on site immediately, but will soon.) To the extent that people think FAOL will take longer than HLMI because of obstacles to AI doing jobs that don’t come from it not being generally capable enough, I think the estimate for HLMI is closer to an estimate of when we’ll have human-level AI than the estimate for FAOL. But I don’t know if that’s the right interpretation, and you’re definitely right that it’s fairer to include the whole picture. I agree that there’s some tension between us saying “experts think human-level AI is likely to arrive in your lifetime” and this survey result, but I do also still think that that sentence is true on the whole, so we’ll think about whether to add more detail about that.
Thanks! We’ve edited the text to include both the FAOL estimate that you mention, and the combined estimate that Vasco mentions in the other reply. (The changes might not show up on site immediately, but will soon.) To the extent that people think FAOL will take longer than HLMI because of obstacles to AI doing jobs that don’t come from it not being generally capable enough, I think the estimate for HLMI is closer to an estimate of when we’ll have human-level AI than the estimate for FAOL. But I don’t know if that’s the right interpretation, and you’re definitely right that it’s fairer to include the whole picture. I agree that there’s some tension between us saying “experts think human-level AI is likely to arrive in your lifetime” and this survey result, but I do also still think that that sentence is true on the whole, so we’ll think about whether to add more detail about that.