Great point, Gregor! Tom Adamczewski has done an analysis which combines the answers to the questions about tasks and occupations. Here is the mainline graph.
Tom aggregates the results from the different questions in the most agnostic way possible, which I think is the best one can do.
I achieve this by simply including answers to both questions prior to aggregation, i.e. no special form of aggregation is used for aggregating tasks (HLMI) and occupations (FAOL). Since more respondents were asked about tasks than occupations, I achieve equal weight by resampling from the occupations (FAOL) responses.
Here is how Tom suggests people describe the results.
Experts were asked when it will be feasible to automate all tasks or occupations. The median expert thinks this is 20% likely by 2048, and 80% likely by 2103. There was substantial disagreement among experts. For automation by 2048, the middle half of experts assigned it a probability between 1% and a 60% (meaning ¼ assigned it a chance lower than 1%, and ¼ gave a chance higher than 60%). For automation by 2103, the central half of experts forecasts ranged from a 25% chance to a 100% chance.2
Great point, Gregor! Tom Adamczewski has done an analysis which combines the answers to the questions about tasks and occupations. Here is the mainline graph.
Tom aggregates the results from the different questions in the most agnostic way possible, which I think is the best one can do.
Here is how Tom suggests people describe the results.