Thanks for writing this! I find it really striking how academic critics of longtermism (both Thorstad and Schwitzgebel spring to mind here) donāt adequately consider model uncertainty. Itās something I also tried to flag in my old post on āX-risk agnosticismā.
Tarsneyās epistemic challenge paper is so much better, precisely because he gets into higher-order uncertainty (over possible values for the crucial parameter ārā which includes the persisting risk of extinction, in the far future, despite our best efforts).
Thanks, Richard! Iāve just had a look at your post and see youāve anticipated a number of the points I made here. Iām interested in the problem of model uncertainty, but most of the treatments of it Iāve found have been technical, which isnāt much help to a maths illiterate like me. Some of the literature on moral uncertainty is relevant, and thereās an interesting treatment in Toby Ordās, Rafaela Hillerbrandās and Anders Sandbergās paper here. But Iād be glad to learn of other philosophical treatments if you or others can recommend any.
Thanks for writing this! I find it really striking how academic critics of longtermism (both Thorstad and Schwitzgebel spring to mind here) donāt adequately consider model uncertainty. Itās something I also tried to flag in my old post on āX-risk agnosticismā.
Tarsneyās epistemic challenge paper is so much better, precisely because he gets into higher-order uncertainty (over possible values for the crucial parameter ārā which includes the persisting risk of extinction, in the far future, despite our best efforts).
Thanks, Richard! Iāve just had a look at your post and see youāve anticipated a number of the points I made here. Iām interested in the problem of model uncertainty, but most of the treatments of it Iāve found have been technical, which isnāt much help to a maths illiterate like me. Some of the literature on moral uncertainty is relevant, and thereās an interesting treatment in Toby Ordās, Rafaela Hillerbrandās and Anders Sandbergās paper here. But Iād be glad to learn of other philosophical treatments if you or others can recommend any.