Hm, I empathise with your underlying concern, but don’t the sliders help with that?
(Tangentially, “precise maths on top of guesses” is basically how I’d describe all CEAs, including GiveWell’s which move hundreds of millions annually. The guesses get better in all kinds of ways, but at least when I last checked the AMF CEA it wasn’t using field data like you’d like. So in a sense you seem to be asking for more than whole teams of specialists can deliver, let alone one person and a bunch of subscriptions can do in their limited spare time?)
Hm, I empathise with your underlying concern, but don’t the sliders help with that?
(Tangentially, “precise maths on top of guesses” is basically how I’d describe all CEAs, including GiveWell’s which move hundreds of millions annually. The guesses get better in all kinds of ways, but at least when I last checked the AMF CEA it wasn’t using field data like you’d like. So in a sense you seem to be asking for more than whole teams of specialists can deliver, let alone one person and a bunch of subscriptions can do in their limited spare time?)