Gleave thinks discontinuous progress in AI is extremely unlikely:
I’m confused about this point. Did Adam Gleave explicitly say that he thinks discontinuous progress is “extremely unlikely” (or something to this effect)?
From the transcript I get a sense of a less confident estimate being made:
Adam Gleave: [...] I don’t see much reason for AI progress to be discontinuous in particular.
Adam Gleave: [...] I don’t expect there to be a discontinuity, in the sense of, we just see this sudden jump.
I’m confused about this point. Did Adam Gleave explicitly say that he thinks discontinuous progress is “extremely unlikely” (or something to this effect)?
From the transcript I get a sense of a less confident estimate being made: