Your comment now makes more sense given that you misunderstood the OP. Consider adding an edit mentioning what your misunderstanding was at top of your comment, I think it’d help with interpreting it.
So you agree 3 is clearly false. I thought that you thought it was near enough true to not worry about the possibility of being very wrong on a number of things. Good to have cleared that up.
I imagine then our central disagreement lies more in what it looks like once you collapse all that uncertainty on your unidimensional EV scale. Maybe you think it looks less diverse (on many dimensions) overall than I do. That’s my best guess at our disagreement—that we just have different priors on how much diversity is the right amount for maximising impact overall. Or maybe we have no core disagreement. On an aside, I tend to find it mostly not useful as an exercise to do that collapsing thing at such an aggregate level, but maybe I just don’t do enough macro analysis, or I’m just not that maximising.
BTW on your areas where you think we agree: I strongly disagree with commitment to EA as a sign of how likely someone is to make impact. Probably it does better than base rate in global population, sure, but here we are discussing the marginal set of people who would/wouldn’t get deterred/to use EA as one of their inputs in helping them make an impact, depending on whether you take a big tent approach. I’m personally quite cautious to not confuse ‘EA’ with ‘having impact’ (not saying you did this, I’m just pretty wary about it and thus sensitive), and do worry about people selecting for ‘EA alignment’ - it really turns me off EA because it’s strong sign of groupthink and bad epistemic culture.
Your comment now makes more sense given that you misunderstood the OP. Consider adding an edit mentioning what your misunderstanding was at top of your comment, I think it’d help with interpreting it.
So you agree 3 is clearly false. I thought that you thought it was near enough true to not worry about the possibility of being very wrong on a number of things. Good to have cleared that up.
I imagine then our central disagreement lies more in what it looks like once you collapse all that uncertainty on your unidimensional EV scale. Maybe you think it looks less diverse (on many dimensions) overall than I do. That’s my best guess at our disagreement—that we just have different priors on how much diversity is the right amount for maximising impact overall. Or maybe we have no core disagreement. On an aside, I tend to find it mostly not useful as an exercise to do that collapsing thing at such an aggregate level, but maybe I just don’t do enough macro analysis, or I’m just not that maximising.
BTW on your areas where you think we agree: I strongly disagree with commitment to EA as a sign of how likely someone is to make impact. Probably it does better than base rate in global population, sure, but here we are discussing the marginal set of people who would/wouldn’t get deterred/to use EA as one of their inputs in helping them make an impact, depending on whether you take a big tent approach. I’m personally quite cautious to not confuse ‘EA’ with ‘having impact’ (not saying you did this, I’m just pretty wary about it and thus sensitive), and do worry about people selecting for ‘EA alignment’ - it really turns me off EA because it’s strong sign of groupthink and bad epistemic culture.