An in-the-weeds methodological point: your analysis is arguably quite conservative because of where you place the ‘neutral point’ equivalent to non-existence is on a 0-10 life satisfaction scale. You say
Global life satisfaction averages 5.17/10 (as of 2018), making 4.5 years x 5.17/10 = 2.33 WALYs lost per death. An Australian National University model assumes 15 to 68 million pandemic deaths worldwide (in the first year), which would thus lose 35 to 158 million WALYs [...]
Between 2007 and 2011, global wellbeing (yellow line on chart) fell by nearly 0.2 life satisfaction points out of 10, then recovered. I will attribute all of this dip (blue area) to the financial crisis; and as it was mostly over a two-year period (2008–10), averaging 0.1/10 p.a., it totals about 0.2/10 = 0.02 WALYs lost per person worldwide, or 137 million WALYs overall; i.e. 0.9 to 3.9 times the impact of the deaths.
This counts 0⁄10 as equivalent on non-existence, i.e. it is not possible for respondents to say that their lives are worse than death.
It’s unclear where the put the neutral point—an issue I flag in my D. Phil thesis and is noted in the Happier Lives Institute’s Research Agenda. The other obvious place to put it is 5⁄10, on which the WALYs lost per death would be 0.07 (4.5 years x 0.17 per year / 10), rather than 2.33 and the value of saving lives would be smaller than the well-being value of the economic loss.
As a point about sensitivity then, the further from 0⁄10 the neutral point is, the easier it is for the conclusion you reach to be the case.
Indeed, though if working from existing 0-10 life satisfaction scores I don’t think it’s plausible that those who responded below 5⁄10 thought they’d be better off dead. (Maybe those responding below say 2⁄10 would.) Otherwise suicide rates would be far higher.
(But indeed some kind of calibration of death and worse-than-death states is needed more generally. E.g. it concerns me that almost all the bad in the world may be located in extreme pain that is hugely underweighted, and so almost all efforts to improve the world may be missing the point.)
OK, well reworking the numbers with a 2⁄10 neutral point (and Imperial’s latest figures as noted below):
Death is now a fall from 5.17 to 2 points, i.e. by 3.17 points, though presumably out of 8 not 10 as we’ve compressed our scale. So 4.5 years = 4.5 x 3.17/8 = 1.78 WALYs lost. So 1.9 to 24 million deaths = 3.4 to 43 WALYs lost.
Presumably the WALYs lost by the financial crisis is also out of 8 not 10, i.e. 0.2/8 per person = 194 million WALYs. Which is 4.5 to 57 times worse than the deaths.
An in-the-weeds methodological point: your analysis is arguably quite conservative because of where you place the ‘neutral point’ equivalent to non-existence is on a 0-10 life satisfaction scale. You say
This counts 0⁄10 as equivalent on non-existence, i.e. it is not possible for respondents to say that their lives are worse than death.
It’s unclear where the put the neutral point—an issue I flag in my D. Phil thesis and is noted in the Happier Lives Institute’s Research Agenda. The other obvious place to put it is 5⁄10, on which the WALYs lost per death would be 0.07 (4.5 years x 0.17 per year / 10), rather than 2.33 and the value of saving lives would be smaller than the well-being value of the economic loss.
As a point about sensitivity then, the further from 0⁄10 the neutral point is, the easier it is for the conclusion you reach to be the case.
Indeed, though if working from existing 0-10 life satisfaction scores I don’t think it’s plausible that those who responded below 5⁄10 thought they’d be better off dead. (Maybe those responding below say 2⁄10 would.) Otherwise suicide rates would be far higher.
(But indeed some kind of calibration of death and worse-than-death states is needed more generally. E.g. it concerns me that almost all the bad in the world may be located in extreme pain that is hugely underweighted, and so almost all efforts to improve the world may be missing the point.)
Suicide is a very poor indicator of the dead/neutral point, for a host of reasons.
A few small, preliminary surveys I’ve seen place it around 2⁄10, though it ranges from about 0.5 to 6 depending on whom and how you ask.
(I share your concerns in parentheses, and am doing some work along these lines—it’s been sidelined in part due to covid projects.)
OK, well reworking the numbers with a 2⁄10 neutral point (and Imperial’s latest figures as noted below):
Death is now a fall from 5.17 to 2 points, i.e. by 3.17 points, though presumably out of 8 not 10 as we’ve compressed our scale. So 4.5 years = 4.5 x 3.17/8 = 1.78 WALYs lost. So 1.9 to 24 million deaths = 3.4 to 43 WALYs lost.
Presumably the WALYs lost by the financial crisis is also out of 8 not 10, i.e. 0.2/8 per person = 194 million WALYs. Which is 4.5 to 57 times worse than the deaths.