I agree with you that situations like the current one in Afghanistan might be among our most impactful issues, but:
If you wanna talk about iidm, I’d rather think more about how to make failing states in developing countries more viable and functional than improve US government decision-making. Tbh, idk if US decision was a matter of a judgment mistake: Biden’s recent statements seem to show that he doesn’t really regret the decision—that the unwillingness to keep troops in Afghanistan dominated the risk of having Taleban back in power.
I’m not sure there’s still any low-hanging fruit concerning Afghanistan, but we still have many other poor countries in civil war where there is still hope of getting a viable democratic regime—like Haiti and Chad. Perhaps it could be useful to have a theory of what features make a “nation building effort” viable (like in East Timor) or not—and also what can be done to mitigate the harm caused by another government collapse. My current pet theory is that these efforts only have a winning chance when the corresponding country is afraid of being invaded by another foreign power; otherwise, the nation building effort is likely to be regarded as a colonial invasion.
Even though I can only think of Taleban’s return as catastrophic, I wonder if their recent displays of willingness to engage in international relations is only to get recognition for the new regime (implying we’ll be back to middle age again in a few months), or if they’re actually aiming to modernize a little bit (even if just to prevent another future invasion).
I agree with you that situations like the current one in Afghanistan might be among our most impactful issues, but:
If you wanna talk about iidm, I’d rather think more about how to make failing states in developing countries more viable and functional than improve US government decision-making. Tbh, idk if US decision was a matter of a judgment mistake: Biden’s recent statements seem to show that he doesn’t really regret the decision—that the unwillingness to keep troops in Afghanistan dominated the risk of having Taleban back in power.
I’m not sure there’s still any low-hanging fruit concerning Afghanistan, but we still have many other poor countries in civil war where there is still hope of getting a viable democratic regime—like Haiti and Chad. Perhaps it could be useful to have a theory of what features make a “nation building effort” viable (like in East Timor) or not—and also what can be done to mitigate the harm caused by another government collapse. My current pet theory is that these efforts only have a winning chance when the corresponding country is afraid of being invaded by another foreign power; otherwise, the nation building effort is likely to be regarded as a colonial invasion.
Even though I can only think of Taleban’s return as catastrophic, I wonder if their recent displays of willingness to engage in international relations is only to get recognition for the new regime (implying we’ll be back to middle age again in a few months), or if they’re actually aiming to modernize a little bit (even if just to prevent another future invasion).