We should be able to compare global catastrophic risks in terms of the amount of time they make global civilization significantly worse and how much worse it gets. We might call this measure “quality-adjusted civilization years” (QACYs), or the quality-adjusted amount of civilization time that is lost.
For example, let’s say that the COVID-19 pandemic reduces the quality of civilization by 50% for 2 years. Then the QACY burden of COVID-19 is 0.5×2=1 QACYs.
Another example: suppose climate change will reduce the quality of civilization by 80% for 200 years, and then things will return to normal. Then the total QACY burden of climate change over the long term will be 0.8×200=160 QACYs.
In the limit, an existential catastrophe would have a near-infinite QACY burden.
“Quality-adjusted civilization years”
We should be able to compare global catastrophic risks in terms of the amount of time they make global civilization significantly worse and how much worse it gets. We might call this measure “quality-adjusted civilization years” (QACYs), or the quality-adjusted amount of civilization time that is lost.
For example, let’s say that the COVID-19 pandemic reduces the quality of civilization by 50% for 2 years. Then the QACY burden of COVID-19 is 0.5×2=1 QACYs.
Another example: suppose climate change will reduce the quality of civilization by 80% for 200 years, and then things will return to normal. Then the total QACY burden of climate change over the long term will be 0.8×200=160 QACYs.
In the limit, an existential catastrophe would have a near-infinite QACY burden.