That’s a good point. I’m a little worried that coarse-grained metrics like “% unemployment” or “average productivity of labor vs. capital” could fail to track AI progress if AI increases the productivity of labor. But we could pick specific tasks like making a pencil, etc. and ask “how many hours of human labor did it take to make a pencil this year?” This might be hard for diverse task categories like writing a new piece of software though.
That’s a good point. I’m a little worried that coarse-grained metrics like “% unemployment” or “average productivity of labor vs. capital” could fail to track AI progress if AI increases the productivity of labor. But we could pick specific tasks like making a pencil, etc. and ask “how many hours of human labor did it take to make a pencil this year?” This might be hard for diverse task categories like writing a new piece of software though.