See also this piece for a bit of a more fleshed out argument along these lines, which I don’t agree with fully as stated (I don’t think it presents a strong case for transformative AI soon), but which I think gives a good sense of my intuitions about in-principle feasibility.
I’d be interested to hear your disagreements sometime! To clarify, the point of my post was not to present a strong case for transformative AI soon, but rather to undermine a class of common arguments against that hypothesis.
Hm, I may have simply misread or mis-recalled your piece w/r/t the parenthetical, apologies for that. I skimmed it again and didn’t note any strong disagreements, except that “almost zero evidence” seems likely further than I would go (it would take me more time to figure out exactly where I stand on this).
I’d be interested to hear your disagreements sometime! To clarify, the point of my post was not to present a strong case for transformative AI soon, but rather to undermine a class of common arguments against that hypothesis.
Hm, I may have simply misread or mis-recalled your piece w/r/t the parenthetical, apologies for that. I skimmed it again and didn’t note any strong disagreements, except that “almost zero evidence” seems likely further than I would go (it would take me more time to figure out exactly where I stand on this).
Sounds good!