How should we interpret ranges of probabilities here?
We can talk about confidence (credence) intervals for frequencies for the population we’re sampling from for polls and surveys. For species (or individuals) with characteristics of interest (possibly a feature or its absence) X1,X2,…,Xn, we could describe our probability distribution over the fraction of them that are sentient.
Another approach might be to try to quantify the sensitivity to new information, e.g. if we also observed another given capacity (or its absence), how much would our estimate change? If we model the probability that a species (or individual) will have a set X of characteristics of interest given a fixed set of observed characteristics, we could compute a credence interval for our posterior probability of sentience with X, over the distribution of X conditional on observed characteristics.
Are either of these what some of you had in mind, roughly (even if you didn’t actually calculate anthing)? Or something else?
My ranges represent what I think is a reasonable position is on the probability of each creatures sentience given all current input and expected future input. Still, as I said:
...the range is still more of a guideline for my subjective impression than a declaration of what all agents would estimate given their engagement with the literature
I could have made a 90% subjective confidence interval, but I wasn’t confident enough that such an explicit goal in creating or distributing my understanding would be helpful.
How should we interpret ranges of probabilities here?
We can talk about confidence (credence) intervals for frequencies for the population we’re sampling from for polls and surveys. For species (or individuals) with characteristics of interest (possibly a feature or its absence) X1,X2,…,Xn, we could describe our probability distribution over the fraction of them that are sentient.
Another approach might be to try to quantify the sensitivity to new information, e.g. if we also observed another given capacity (or its absence), how much would our estimate change? If we model the probability that a species (or individual) will have a set X of characteristics of interest given a fixed set of observed characteristics, we could compute a credence interval for our posterior probability of sentience with X, over the distribution of X conditional on observed characteristics.
Are either of these what some of you had in mind, roughly (even if you didn’t actually calculate anthing)? Or something else?
My ranges represent what I think is a reasonable position is on the probability of each creatures sentience given all current input and expected future input. Still, as I said:
I could have made a 90% subjective confidence interval, but I wasn’t confident enough that such an explicit goal in creating or distributing my understanding would be helpful.