The justifications made in that post are weak in proportion to the claims made IMO but I’m just a simple human with very limited knowledge and reasoning capability so I am most likely wrong in more ways than I could ever fully comprehend. You seem like a more capable human that is able to think about these type of claims a lot more clearly and understand the arguments much better. Given that argumentation is the principle determinant of how people in industry make products and as a by product the primary determinant of technological development for something like AI, I have full confidence that these type of inferences you allude to will have very strong predictive value as to how the future unfolds when it comes to AI deployment. I hope you and your fellow believers are able to do a lot of useful things about existential risk from AI based on your accurate and infallible inferences and save humanity. If it doesn’t work out at least you will have tried your best! Good luck!
No one is saying that their inferences are “infallible” (and pretty much everyone I know in EA/AI Safety are open to changing their minds based on evidence and reason). We can do the best we can, that is all. My concern is that that won’t be enough, and there won’t be any second chances. Personally, I don’t value “dying with dignity” all that much (over just dying). I’ll still be dead. I would love it if someone could make a convincing case that there is nothing to worry about here. I’ve not seen anything close.
The justifications made in that post are weak in proportion to the claims made IMO but I’m just a simple human with very limited knowledge and reasoning capability so I am most likely wrong in more ways than I could ever fully comprehend. You seem like a more capable human that is able to think about these type of claims a lot more clearly and understand the arguments much better. Given that argumentation is the principle determinant of how people in industry make products and as a by product the primary determinant of technological development for something like AI, I have full confidence that these type of inferences you allude to will have very strong predictive value as to how the future unfolds when it comes to AI deployment. I hope you and your fellow believers are able to do a lot of useful things about existential risk from AI based on your accurate and infallible inferences and save humanity. If it doesn’t work out at least you will have tried your best! Good luck!
No one is saying that their inferences are “infallible” (and pretty much everyone I know in EA/AI Safety are open to changing their minds based on evidence and reason). We can do the best we can, that is all. My concern is that that won’t be enough, and there won’t be any second chances. Personally, I don’t value “dying with dignity” all that much (over just dying). I’ll still be dead. I would love it if someone could make a convincing case that there is nothing to worry about here. I’ve not seen anything close.