And it’s not so much that I think I have zero evidence: I keep up with progress in AI to some degrees, I have some idea of what the remaining gaps are to general intelligence, I’ve seen the speed at which capabilities have improved in recent years etc. It’s that how to evaluate that evidence is not obvious, and so simply presenting a skeptic with it probably won’t move them, especially as the skeptic-in this case you-probably already has most of the evidence I have anyway. If it was just some random person who had never heard of AI asking why I thought the chance of mildly-over-human level AI in 10 years was not far under 1%, there are things I could say. It’s just you already know those things, probably, so there’s not much point in my saying them to you.
And it’s not so much that I think I have zero evidence: I keep up with progress in AI to some degrees, I have some idea of what the remaining gaps are to general intelligence, I’ve seen the speed at which capabilities have improved in recent years etc. It’s that how to evaluate that evidence is not obvious, and so simply presenting a skeptic with it probably won’t move them, especially as the skeptic-in this case you-probably already has most of the evidence I have anyway. If it was just some random person who had never heard of AI asking why I thought the chance of mildly-over-human level AI in 10 years was not far under 1%, there are things I could say. It’s just you already know those things, probably, so there’s not much point in my saying them to you.