It seems like if you find it incredible to deny and he doesnât, itâs very hard to make further progress :( Iâm on your side about the chance being over 1% in the next decade, I think, but I donât know how Iâd prove it to a skeptic, except to gesture and say that capabilities have improved loads in a short time, and it doesnât seem like the are >20 similar sized jumps before AGI. But when I ask myself what evidence I have for âthere are not >20 similar sized jumps before AGIâ I come up short. I donât necessarily think the burden of proof here is actually on people arguing that the chance of AGI in the next decade is non-negligible though: itâs a goal of some serious people within the relevant science, and they are not making zero progress, and some identifiable quantifiable individual capabilities have improved very fast. Plus the extreme difficulty of forecasting technological breakthroughs over more than a couple of years cuts both ways.
It seems like if you find it incredible to deny and he doesnât, itâs very hard to make further progress :( Iâm on your side about the chance being over 1% in the next decade, I think, but I donât know how Iâd prove it to a skeptic, except to gesture and say that capabilities have improved loads in a short time, and it doesnât seem like the are >20 similar sized jumps before AGI. But when I ask myself what evidence I have for âthere are not >20 similar sized jumps before AGIâ I come up short. I donât necessarily think the burden of proof here is actually on people arguing that the chance of AGI in the next decade is non-negligible though: itâs a goal of some serious people within the relevant science, and they are not making zero progress, and some identifiable quantifiable individual capabilities have improved very fast. Plus the extreme difficulty of forecasting technological breakthroughs over more than a couple of years cuts both ways.