This is a great initiative, and a helpful write—up. Thanks Kerry.
So you want to find ventures that are expected to be better than the most effective charity (or thereabouts) in the world?
I’m a bit worried that you will rule out many fantastically valuable ventures that may be discouraged or not stimulated from happening otherwise.
If these ventures were to use only EA funds or mainly EA funds, then that would be right.
However, if the ventures have a (lets say 10% chance) of growing out of the EA world and getting funding that wouldn’t otherwise be attracted, and are only 1⁄5 as effective as AMF, but when they do they last for 40 years and wouldn’t be done otherwise, then it could still be worth giving them?
Further, the learning from the process might be worth something significant if its a necessary barrier to becoming an uber-effectiveness incubator?
Obviously you want to take the highest expected value anyway so this might be an academic discussion.
Haha, had a look at the people behind this—forget what I said—I’m sure that between all the funders/backers you’ve got more than enough learning to identify projects that are better than AMF. Good luck!
This is a great initiative, and a helpful write—up. Thanks Kerry.
So you want to find ventures that are expected to be better than the most effective charity (or thereabouts) in the world?
I’m a bit worried that you will rule out many fantastically valuable ventures that may be discouraged or not stimulated from happening otherwise.
If these ventures were to use only EA funds or mainly EA funds, then that would be right.
However, if the ventures have a (lets say 10% chance) of growing out of the EA world and getting funding that wouldn’t otherwise be attracted, and are only 1⁄5 as effective as AMF, but when they do they last for 40 years and wouldn’t be done otherwise, then it could still be worth giving them?
Further, the learning from the process might be worth something significant if its a necessary barrier to becoming an uber-effectiveness incubator?
Obviously you want to take the highest expected value anyway so this might be an academic discussion.
Haha, had a look at the people behind this—forget what I said—I’m sure that between all the funders/backers you’ve got more than enough learning to identify projects that are better than AMF. Good luck!