The book linked to in the evaluation process page on the website suggests that a linear model where the sign is determined and the weights are random beats expert judgment.
Thanks. Looks like the original experiment is here.
Just looking at the abstract, it seems like the article is describing a situation where you have numerical inputs, which doesn’t map perfectly to EA Ventures: “This article presents evidence that even such improper linear models are superior to clinical intuition when predicting a numerical criterion from numerical predictors.”
The book linked to in the evaluation process page on the website suggests that a linear model where the sign is determined and the weights are random beats expert judgment.
I can’t get to the book. Is there any more information about the experiment?
You can read it here. The money pages are 63-64.
Thanks. Looks like the original experiment is here.
Just looking at the abstract, it seems like the article is describing a situation where you have numerical inputs, which doesn’t map perfectly to EA Ventures: “This article presents evidence that even such improper linear models are superior to clinical intuition when predicting a numerical criterion from numerical predictors.”