Regarding the whether they have the same practical implications, I guess I agree that if everyone had a 90% credence in catastrophe, that would be better than them having 50% credence or 10%.
Inasmuch as you’re right that the major players have a 10% credence of catastrophe, we should either push to raise it or to advocate for more caution given the stakes.
My worry is that they don’t actually have that 10% credence, despite maybe saying they do, and that coming across as more extreme might stop them from listening.
I think you might be right that if we can make the case for 90%, we should make it. But I worry we can’t.
Regarding the whether they have the same practical implications, I guess I agree that if everyone had a 90% credence in catastrophe, that would be better than them having 50% credence or 10%.
Inasmuch as you’re right that the major players have a 10% credence of catastrophe, we should either push to raise it or to advocate for more caution given the stakes.
My worry is that they don’t actually have that 10% credence, despite maybe saying they do, and that coming across as more extreme might stop them from listening.
I think you might be right that if we can make the case for 90%, we should make it. But I worry we can’t.
I think we should at least try! (As I am doing here.)