I think you should modify the title to include āin the short termā, since the increase in non-police killings was temporary. It seems pretty plausible that killings are reduced overall in the longer term.
I disagreeāthe point estimate for the increase in murders is well above 0 for the entire time period [figure 6]. The effect possibly fades away a little over time, so the confidence interval extends slightly over zero, but that doesnāt mean you can assume it is zero! If you did a statistical test for ādid the increase in killings reduce over timeā you would not get a significant result.
Red is for murder and blue is for property crime, right?
Even if itās still above at year 4 , thatās as far as the analysis warrants a conclusion for, and 4 years is still the short-term. You could specify āin the 4 years following the first protestā (although does this figure include police killings?). Your title reads to me as saying the rate will settle higher than without the protests or at least the drop in police killings will never make up for the increase in other murders, neither of which follow, and looking at that figure, neither seems more likely than not. How I read the title, it doesāt even seem more likely to be true than false.
I think you should modify the title to include āin the short termā, since the increase in non-police killings was temporary. It seems pretty plausible that killings are reduced overall in the longer term.
I disagreeāthe point estimate for the increase in murders is well above 0 for the entire time period [figure 6]. The effect possibly fades away a little over time, so the confidence interval extends slightly over zero, but that doesnāt mean you can assume it is zero! If you did a statistical test for ādid the increase in killings reduce over timeā you would not get a significant result.
Red is for murder and blue is for property crime, right?
Even if itās still above at year 4 , thatās as far as the analysis warrants a conclusion for, and 4 years is still the short-term. You could specify āin the 4 years following the first protestā (although does this figure include police killings?). Your title reads to me as saying the rate will settle higher than without the protests or at least the drop in police killings will never make up for the increase in other murders, neither of which follow, and looking at that figure, neither seems more likely than not. How I read the title, it doesāt even seem more likely to be true than false.