This is one of those scenarios in which I think it’s easier to capture ~the full costs than the full benefits:
Would you assign value to the indirect protective effect on those you live with (if any), friends, and family members? Apparently the flu household attack rate can be all over the place depending on strain and other factors, but 15-20% may be reasonable guesses in general (source: AI overview on Google search, very low confidence).
This gets into some tricky situations with housemates; you’re likely to all be better off if you mutually agree to consider the indirect protective effects on housemates when making your own decisions. But that effect is likely to be significantly greater with unvaccinated housemates than vaccinated ones. If you live with three other people, the first vaccination may have significant household spillover effects; the fourth not so much.
Most people would pay to avoid the discomfort of having the flu (above and beyond the loss in productivity) or would demand payment to willingly undergo that discomfort. Maybe you could consider willingness to pay for pleasurable leisure activities, and then decide how many of those activities you’d be willing to forego to avoid enduring one average case of the flu?
On the costs side:
1.5 hr is a lot to get a flu vaccine by US standards; they are available on a walk-in basis at pharmacies everywhere. That’s not a critique of your analysis, of course.
Could you call ahead and ensure that where you were going to get the vaccine used Influvac or Vaxigrip? (I assume fewer places would stock Fluenz, anyway due to cost.)
For most people, the hours of their day do not have equal value or utility. I can’t—at least not on a regular basis—realistically use the 14th most valuable hour of my day for renumerative work, but I could use it to get a vaccine. In other words, there’s a limit on how many hours I can sustain higher-demand activities. In contrast, when I get the flu, I think the loss in productivity hits the relevant time slots more evenly.
I don’t know if those adjustments would flip the end result for you—but I think accounting for them would make it a close call and would show how modest differences in the factors (e.g., personal circumstances that make getting the vaccine less time-consuming) would flip the outcome.
Would you assign value to the indirect protective effect on those you live with (if any), friends, and family members?
Yes. However, I estimate I would have to infect more than 1.60 k people conditional on getting a symptomatic flu for the health benefits to other people to exceed the impact of donating 24.7 $ to the most cost-effective global health interventions, which is the difference between my estimates for the cost and benefits. I would also limit my contact to a few people I live with if I had a symptomatic flu.
Maybe you could consider willingness to pay for pleasurable leisure activities, and then decide how many of those activities you’d be willing to forego to avoid enduring one average case of the flu?
I think my willingness to pay for extra working and leisure time should be the same. Otherwise, I should spend more/less time on what I think is the most/least valuable per hour at the margin until my willingness to pay for extra working and leisure time is the same.
1.5 hr is a lot to get a flu vaccine by US standards; they are available on a walk-in basis at pharmacies everywhere. That’s not a critique of your analysis, of course.
Could you call ahead and ensure that where you were going to get the vaccine used Influvac or Vaxigrip? (I assume fewer places would stock Fluenz, anyway due to cost.)
Interesting. In Portugal, people like me who are not covered by free vaccination need to get a doctor’s prescription.
For people not covered by free vaccination, the flu vaccine is dispensed at community pharmacies with a doctor’s prescription and subject to stock availability.
I also assume I would have to book it in advance to ensure there is enough stock, and because people who are covered by free vacination also have to book it. My time cost of 1.5 h is supposed to account not only for the time to get the vaccine, but also booking it, getting a doctor’s prescription, and understanding whether this is even feasible in the 1st place (considering I am a healthy young adult).
For most people, the hours of their day do not have equal value or utility. I can’t—at least not on a regular basis—realistically use the 14th most valuable hour of my day for renumerative work, but I could use it to get a vaccine. In other words, there’s a limit on how many hours I can sustain higher-demand activities. In contrast, when I get the flu, I think the loss in productivity hits the relevant time slots more evenly.
Nice point. I should clarify I am considering as productive all the activities I log in my time sheet, not just my main activity of paid work. Ideally, the marginal hour spent on each activity would be the same. In any case, I agree there are times in the day that are less productive. I would prefer to get a vaccine late in the afternoon just before dinner than in the middle of the morning or afternoon.
I don’t know if those adjustments would flip the end result for you—but I think accounting for them would make it a close call and would show how modest differences in the factors (e.g., personal circumstances that make getting the vaccine less time-consuming) would flip the outcome.
Yes, I can see vaccination being worth it for young healthy under some conditions. Thanks for bringing attention to this.
This is one of those scenarios in which I think it’s easier to capture ~the full costs than the full benefits:
Would you assign value to the indirect protective effect on those you live with (if any), friends, and family members? Apparently the flu household attack rate can be all over the place depending on strain and other factors, but 15-20% may be reasonable guesses in general (source: AI overview on Google search, very low confidence).
This gets into some tricky situations with housemates; you’re likely to all be better off if you mutually agree to consider the indirect protective effects on housemates when making your own decisions. But that effect is likely to be significantly greater with unvaccinated housemates than vaccinated ones. If you live with three other people, the first vaccination may have significant household spillover effects; the fourth not so much.
Most people would pay to avoid the discomfort of having the flu (above and beyond the loss in productivity) or would demand payment to willingly undergo that discomfort. Maybe you could consider willingness to pay for pleasurable leisure activities, and then decide how many of those activities you’d be willing to forego to avoid enduring one average case of the flu?
On the costs side:
1.5 hr is a lot to get a flu vaccine by US standards; they are available on a walk-in basis at pharmacies everywhere. That’s not a critique of your analysis, of course.
Could you call ahead and ensure that where you were going to get the vaccine used Influvac or Vaxigrip? (I assume fewer places would stock Fluenz, anyway due to cost.)
For most people, the hours of their day do not have equal value or utility. I can’t—at least not on a regular basis—realistically use the 14th most valuable hour of my day for renumerative work, but I could use it to get a vaccine. In other words, there’s a limit on how many hours I can sustain higher-demand activities. In contrast, when I get the flu, I think the loss in productivity hits the relevant time slots more evenly.
I don’t know if those adjustments would flip the end result for you—but I think accounting for them would make it a close call and would show how modest differences in the factors (e.g., personal circumstances that make getting the vaccine less time-consuming) would flip the outcome.
Thanks for the good points, Jason.
Yes. However, I estimate I would have to infect more than 1.60 k people conditional on getting a symptomatic flu for the health benefits to other people to exceed the impact of donating 24.7 $ to the most cost-effective global health interventions, which is the difference between my estimates for the cost and benefits. I would also limit my contact to a few people I live with if I had a symptomatic flu.
I think my willingness to pay for extra working and leisure time should be the same. Otherwise, I should spend more/less time on what I think is the most/least valuable per hour at the margin until my willingness to pay for extra working and leisure time is the same.
Interesting. In Portugal, people like me who are not covered by free vaccination need to get a doctor’s prescription.
I also assume I would have to book it in advance to ensure there is enough stock, and because people who are covered by free vacination also have to book it. My time cost of 1.5 h is supposed to account not only for the time to get the vaccine, but also booking it, getting a doctor’s prescription, and understanding whether this is even feasible in the 1st place (considering I am a healthy young adult).
Nice point. I should clarify I am considering as productive all the activities I log in my time sheet, not just my main activity of paid work. Ideally, the marginal hour spent on each activity would be the same. In any case, I agree there are times in the day that are less productive. I would prefer to get a vaccine late in the afternoon just before dinner than in the middle of the morning or afternoon.
Yes, I can see vaccination being worth it for young healthy under some conditions. Thanks for bringing attention to this.