The most convincing argument I’ve come across against cultivated meat is from Joe Fassler’s 2021 article in The Counter where he notes:
“If cultured protein is going to be even 10 percent of the world’s meat supply by 2030, we will need 4,000 factories like the one GFI envisions, according to an analysis by the trade publication Food Navigator. To meet that deadline, building at a rate of one mega-facility a day would be too slow.
All of those facilities would also come with a heart-stopping price tag: a minimum of $1.8 trillion, according to Food Navigator. That’s where things get complicated. It’s where critics say—and even GFI’s own numbers suggest—that cell-cultured meat may never be economically viable, even if it’s technically feasible.”
I will take these numbers at face value, but never underestimate the power of learning curves! Bio-reactors, like most other tech, are getting cheaper and more efficient. I will definitely agree that take-off will be slow: I would be surprised if even 1% of meat consumption is from cultivated meat by 2030. But I think once we do hit 1% we will get to 99% quickly (where I am not confident enough to put a number on “quickly”).
Excellent perspective.
The most convincing argument I’ve come across against cultivated meat is from Joe Fassler’s 2021 article in The Counter where he notes: “If cultured protein is going to be even 10 percent of the world’s meat supply by 2030, we will need 4,000 factories like the one GFI envisions, according to an analysis by the trade publication Food Navigator. To meet that deadline, building at a rate of one mega-facility a day would be too slow.
All of those facilities would also come with a heart-stopping price tag: a minimum of $1.8 trillion, according to Food Navigator. That’s where things get complicated. It’s where critics say—and even GFI’s own numbers suggest—that cell-cultured meat may never be economically viable, even if it’s technically feasible.”
I will take these numbers at face value, but never underestimate the power of learning curves! Bio-reactors, like most other tech, are getting cheaper and more efficient. I will definitely agree that take-off will be slow: I would be surprised if even 1% of meat consumption is from cultivated meat by 2030. But I think once we do hit 1% we will get to 99% quickly (where I am not confident enough to put a number on “quickly”).