If you’re clueless about an intervention and you use a fat-tailed prior, then the expected value might be very large but the median value will be very small, and most of the probability mass will be close to 0. For the RP welfare estimates, the median values make animal welfare interventions look highly effective.
If you’re clueless about an intervention and you use a fat-tailed prior, then the expected value might be very large but the median value will be very small, and most of the probability mass will be close to 0. For the RP welfare estimates, the median values make animal welfare interventions look highly effective.