For a welfare range estimate, the thing that matters is the expected value.
Right. I have been using Rethink Priorities’ (RP’s) median welfare ranges, but I care about expected welfare. RP thinks their median welfare ranges are a better proxy for the actual means than the means of the distributions they got, and I tend to agree.
I think it’s very relevant that animal welfare interventions look better than global health interventions almost everywhere within the RP intervals.
I think this point is stronger than inferred from the graph because the 90 % confidence interval of the median is narrower than the range from the 5th to the 95th percentile.
Agreed, Michael!
Right. I have been using Rethink Priorities’ (RP’s) median welfare ranges, but I care about expected welfare. RP thinks their median welfare ranges are a better proxy for the actual means than the means of the distributions they got, and I tend to agree.
I think this point is stronger than inferred from the graph because the 90 % confidence interval of the median is narrower than the range from the 5th to the 95th percentile.