I’m inclined to agree that EAs should think more politically in general.
But the value of specific actions depends on both scale/leverage and the probability of success.
Influencing governments in the short-term has a low probability of success, unless you’re already in a position of power or it’s an issue that is relatively uncontroversial (e.g. with limited trade-offs).
Because of the scale of government spending, it could still be worth trying—but the main value might be in learning lessons on how to get better at influencing in the future, rather than having any immediate impact.
From the perspective of the long term, helping humans to improve how they govern themselves, might be the necessary condition for any other causes. Without it, even miracle scientific breakthrough will not produce positive outcomes.
Notably, we have zero sway in the current administration. Arguably, most Republicans have zero sway too. Even Marco Rubio is acting like someone else, apparently to avoid being fired. I’m reminded of Prof. Gerdes, a conservative YouTuber whom I follow simply because he ends every video by saying “thank you for being the kind of person who cares about Ukraine”—which is just not something a 2025 Republican would say. Indeed, he eventually mentioned that he “just couldn’t” vote for Trump a second time. I wish I could be politically powerful, but I don’t even have a single EA friend. So, political donations don’t seem in the cards this year.
I’m inclined to agree that EAs should think more politically in general.
But the value of specific actions depends on both scale/leverage and the probability of success.
Influencing governments in the short-term has a low probability of success, unless you’re already in a position of power or it’s an issue that is relatively uncontroversial (e.g. with limited trade-offs).
Because of the scale of government spending, it could still be worth trying—but the main value might be in learning lessons on how to get better at influencing in the future, rather than having any immediate impact.
From the perspective of the long term, helping humans to improve how they govern themselves, might be the necessary condition for any other causes. Without it, even miracle scientific breakthrough will not produce positive outcomes.
Notably, we have zero sway in the current administration. Arguably, most Republicans have zero sway too. Even Marco Rubio is acting like someone else, apparently to avoid being fired. I’m reminded of Prof. Gerdes, a conservative YouTuber whom I follow simply because he ends every video by saying “thank you for being the kind of person who cares about Ukraine”—which is just not something a 2025 Republican would say. Indeed, he eventually mentioned that he “just couldn’t” vote for Trump a second time. I wish I could be politically powerful, but I don’t even have a single EA friend. So, political donations don’t seem in the cards this year.