If you mean “you should consider the counterfactual when deciding whether to work at an organisation” then that’s definitely true.
The evidence for the best candidates being much better than the next best is anecdotal, but many people hiring at EA orgs feel like this. Indeed, it doesn’t seem uncommon for positions to go unfilled because they didn’t find anyone who’s a good enough fit.
It depends what exactly is meant by “the replaceability argument”. If you mean the argument that because someone else would take the job otherwise, working in a nonprofit typically has very little impact, I think that’s really not obvious. There’s some elaboration here: https://80000hours.org/2015/07/replaceability-isnt-as-important-as-you-might-think-or-weve-suggested/
If you mean “you should consider the counterfactual when deciding whether to work at an organisation” then that’s definitely true.
The evidence for the best candidates being much better than the next best is anecdotal, but many people hiring at EA orgs feel like this. Indeed, it doesn’t seem uncommon for positions to go unfilled because they didn’t find anyone who’s a good enough fit.