Don’t buy the stuff about expecting a famine that kills billions at all? Especially since she didn’t seem to have dug into the actual criticisms of the nuclear winter theory in her post sequence, e.g. the independent components of the theory. I think very likely (>90%) there won’t be any change in temperature at all, which will be the case if any of those components fail. And as I understand it she has since updated towards being less bullish on it since those posts, and people who succeeded her at RP don’t think nuclear winter is that likely either.
Don’t buy the stuff about expecting a famine that kills billions at all? Especially since she didn’t seem to have dug into the actual criticisms of the nuclear winter theory in her post sequence, e.g. the independent components of the theory. I think very likely (>90%) there won’t be any change in temperature at all, which will be the case if any of those components fail. And as I understand it she has since updated towards being less bullish on it since those posts, and people who succeeded her at RP don’t think nuclear winter is that likely either.