I would think winning is likely to depend sharply on cause area, or at least on particular assumptions that are not agreed upon in the EA community, at least if it is to be sufficiently concrete. Most EAs could probably agree that a world where utility is maximized (or some fairly similar metric, or optimization function) is a win. What world will realize this depends on views about the value of nonhuman animals, the value of good vs. bad experiences, and other issues where I’ve seen quite a bit of disagreement in the EA community.
I would think winning is likely to depend sharply on cause area, or at least on particular assumptions that are not agreed upon in the EA community, at least if it is to be sufficiently concrete. Most EAs could probably agree that a world where utility is maximized (or some fairly similar metric, or optimization function) is a win. What world will realize this depends on views about the value of nonhuman animals, the value of good vs. bad experiences, and other issues where I’ve seen quite a bit of disagreement in the EA community.