Thanks Rob! Really glad to hear that the podcast is doing better than I had anticipated. I’m traveling today, but will plan to update the podcast forecast when I have a moment [edit: done].
I’m not planning to update forecasts across the board for projects though: the data is already outdated from Aug, and in general I wouldn’t assume that any of the individual 2023 forecasts are very resilient (I was more interested in the overall growth rates than in the numbers for any specific program) — most of my reasoning on specific forecasts should be in the footnotes if readers are interested.
For posterity, the 80K team helped me generate the 2023 end of year forecasts, and used the method detailed in FN 5, which I’ve included below for convenience (just to clarify, I believe the 80k team used this methodology to generate forecasts, but I wrote the description):
This and all of 80k’s 2023 projected metrics in this memo are found by calculating: [2022 total value] x ([2023 YTD value] / [2022 equivalent YTD value]).
For example, if we have 2023 YTD data for the total number of newsletter subscribers until Aug 1, 2023, we would calculate: [Total number of subscribers on Dec 31, 2022] x ( [Total number of subscribers on Aug 1, 2023] / [Total number of subscribers on Aug 1, 2022] ). This is to account for any seasonality effects.
Thanks Rob! Really glad to hear that the podcast is doing better than I had anticipated. I’m traveling today, but will plan to update the podcast forecast when I have a moment [edit: done].
I’m not planning to update forecasts across the board for projects though: the data is already outdated from Aug, and in general I wouldn’t assume that any of the individual 2023 forecasts are very resilient (I was more interested in the overall growth rates than in the numbers for any specific program) — most of my reasoning on specific forecasts should be in the footnotes if readers are interested.
For posterity, the 80K team helped me generate the 2023 end of year forecasts, and used the method detailed in FN 5, which I’ve included below for convenience (just to clarify, I believe the 80k team used this methodology to generate forecasts, but I wrote the description):
I’ll make this clearer in the body of the post.