To forecast future growth, I think it would be useful to have more than 3 years of data (2021 to 2023), but I appreciate it may not be available for many metrics. CEA’s dashboard has some metrics plotted for longer timeframes. Here are the 2 plots which have data for at least 6 years.
Total views on the EffectiveAltruism.org home (blue) and intro (orange) pages (per month):
Overall EA Newsletter subscriber count (at the start of each month):
Bases on these, it looks like early funnel growth has stalled. It would be nice to see 80,000 Hours’ metrics plotted for long timeframes too, as it is the most important factor for people getting involved in EA. From the 2022 EA Survey:
For the data from the CEA dashboard, could you please update your top level comment to make clear which metrics you are pasting graphs of? (Total views on the EffectiveAltruism.org home and intro pages (per month), Overall EA Newsletter subscriber count (at the start of each month)).
Thanks for your broader feedback. Making sure all the data in this public post was double checked / had good reasoning transparency took a bunch of time, so I opted to include only the timeframe that seemed most informative to readers. (It’s possible this was a mistake, which I’ll come back to if we revisit this project!)
FWIW I think a bunch of the historical data across projects is also not straightforward to interpret: I expect 2020 was a super weird year for many projects because of COVID, and the <=2019 data across projects is so far back in the past I’m just not sure how informative it is for the modern day.
For the data from the CEA dashboard, could you please update your top level comment to make clear which metrics you are pasting graphs of? (Total views on the EffectiveAltruism.org home and intro pages (per month), Overall EA Newsletter subscriber count (at the start of each month)).
Sorry! Done.
I expect 2020 was a super weird year for many projects because of COVID
On the other hand, it might be interesting to see whether there were any important changes caused by COVID, besides the direct ones of having less in-person events like EAGs and EAGxs. If the median EA view about AI and bio is right, I guess we may have weirder years than COVID in the next decades too.
<=2019 data across projects is so far back in the past I’m just not sure how informative it is for the modern day
Fair point. I think it would still be informative in some cases.
Thanks for letting me know. The problem is that, for reasons unknown to me, the figures break a while after edit my comment. They are visible again now, but will probably break again.
Helpful data, Angelina!
To forecast future growth, I think it would be useful to have more than 3 years of data (2021 to 2023), but I appreciate it may not be available for many metrics. CEA’s dashboard has some metrics plotted for longer timeframes. Here are the 2 plots which have data for at least 6 years.
Total views on the EffectiveAltruism.org home (blue) and intro (orange) pages (per month):
Overall EA Newsletter subscriber count (at the start of each month):
Bases on these, it looks like early funnel growth has stalled. It would be nice to see 80,000 Hours’ metrics plotted for long timeframes too, as it is the most important factor for people getting involved in EA. From the 2022 EA Survey:
Thanks Vasco!
For the data from the CEA dashboard, could you please update your top level comment to make clear which metrics you are pasting graphs of? (Total views on the EffectiveAltruism.org home and intro pages (per month), Overall EA Newsletter subscriber count (at the start of each month)).
Thanks for your broader feedback. Making sure all the data in this public post was double checked / had good reasoning transparency took a bunch of time, so I opted to include only the timeframe that seemed most informative to readers. (It’s possible this was a mistake, which I’ll come back to if we revisit this project!)
FWIW I think a bunch of the historical data across projects is also not straightforward to interpret: I expect 2020 was a super weird year for many projects because of COVID, and the <=2019 data across projects is so far back in the past I’m just not sure how informative it is for the modern day.
Sorry! Done.
On the other hand, it might be interesting to see whether there were any important changes caused by COVID, besides the direct ones of having less in-person events like EAGs and EAGxs. If the median EA view about AI and bio is right, I guess we may have weirder years than COVID in the next decades too.
Fair point. I think it would still be informative in some cases.
FYI these images don’t load for me
Thanks, Jeff! I think you can see them now.
Hi Vasco, thanks for your comment it’s really interesting, but I can’t see the first two pictures, maybe others can’t as well?
Hi Vaipan,
Thanks for letting me know. The problem is that, for reasons unknown to me, the figures break a while after edit my comment. They are visible again now, but will probably break again.