So the idea that the reference class “humans alive today” is special among pre-expansion humans doesn’t feel that crazy. (There’s a related variant of the doomsday argument—if we expect population to grow rapidly until space expansion, many generations might reasonably expect themselves to be at or near the cusp of something big.)
Of course, we’d still be very special relative to all living beings, assuming big and long-lasting post-expansion populations.
Do people’s wildness intuitions change when we think about human lives or life-years, instead of calendar years?
7 billion of 115 billion humans ever are living today. Given today’s higher life expectancies, about 15% of all experience so far has been experienced by people who are alive right now.
So the idea that the reference class “humans alive today” is special among pre-expansion humans doesn’t feel that crazy. (There’s a related variant of the doomsday argument—if we expect population to grow rapidly until space expansion, many generations might reasonably expect themselves to be at or near the cusp of something big.)
Of course, we’d still be very special relative to all living beings, assuming big and long-lasting post-expansion populations.
I think your last comment is the key point for me—what’s wild is how early we are, compared to the full galaxy population across time.