Thanks for your comment Vasco! There are definitely lots of factors at play here, and the “all else being equal” bit in the part you quoted is doing a lot of heavy lifting and masking multiple assumptions that we could perhaps have laid out more clearly, including the assumption that p(“civilisation collapse”) << p(“global catastrophe”) << p(“catastrophe”), and that equal amounts of resources are going into prevention, response, and resilience.
This is of course not the case, but analysis of this landscape is out of scope for this iteration of the Resources Portal. This page was designed as an introduction for engineers looking into high-impact areas to do work in/start projects in, and hopefully future iterations of our Resources Portal will be able to deep dive these intricacies. Thank you for bringing this to our attention, as it’s something we will look into in the future!
Thanks for your comment Vasco! There are definitely lots of factors at play here, and the “all else being equal” bit in the part you quoted is doing a lot of heavy lifting and masking multiple assumptions that we could perhaps have laid out more clearly, including the assumption that p(“civilisation collapse”) << p(“global catastrophe”) << p(“catastrophe”), and that equal amounts of resources are going into prevention, response, and resilience.
This is of course not the case, but analysis of this landscape is out of scope for this iteration of the Resources Portal. This page was designed as an introduction for engineers looking into high-impact areas to do work in/start projects in, and hopefully future iterations of our Resources Portal will be able to deep dive these intricacies. Thank you for bringing this to our attention, as it’s something we will look into in the future!