Stand up a meta organization for neartermism now, and start moving functions over as it is ready.
As I’ve said before, I agree with you that this looks like a pretty good idea from a neartermist perspective.
Neartermism has developed meta organizations from scratch before, of course.
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which is quite a bit more than neartermism had when it created most of the current meta.
I don’t think it’s fair to describe the current meta orgs as being created by neartermists and therefore argue that new orgs could be created by neartermists. These were created by people who were compelled by the fundamental arguments for EA (e.g. the importance of cause prioritization, cosmopolitanism, etc). New meta orgs would have to be created by people who are compelled by these arguments but also not compelled by the current arguments for longtermism, which is empirically a small fraction of the most energetic/ambitious/competent people who are compelled by arguments for the other core EA ideas.
More importantly, meta orgs that were distanced from the longtermist branch would likely attract people interested in working in GHD, animal advocacy, etc. who wouldn’t currently be interested in affiliating with EA as a whole. So you’d get some experienced hands and a good number of new recruits
I think this is the strongest argument for why neartermism wouldn’t be substantially weaker without longtermists subsidizing its infrastructure.
Two general points:
There are many neartermists who I deeply respect; for example, I feel deep gratitude to Lewis Bollard from the Open Phil farmed animal welfare team and many other farmed animal welfare people. Also, I think GiveWell seems like a competent org that I expect to keep running competently.
It makes me feel sad to imagine neartermists not wanting to associate with longtermists. I personally feel like I am fundamentally an EA, but I’m only contingently a longtermist. If I didn’t believe I could influence the long run future, I’d probably be working on animal welfare; if I didn’t believe that there were good opportunities there, I’d be working hard to improve the welfare of current humans. If I believed it was the best thing to do, I would totally be living frugally and working hard to EtG for global poverty charities. I think of neartermist EAs as being fellow travelers and kindred spirits, with much more in common with me than almost all other humans.
While neartermists may be a “small fraction” of the pie of “most energetic/ambitious/competent people,” that pie is a lot larger than it was in the 2000s. And while funding is not a replacement for good people, it is (to a point) a force multiplier for the good people you have. The funding situation would be much better than it was in the 2000s. In any event, I am inclined to think that many neartermists would accept B-list infrastructure if that meant that the infrastructure would put neartermism first -- so I don’t think the infrastructure would have to be as good.
I’m just not sure if there is another way to address some of the challenges the original poster alludes to. For the current meta organizations to start promoting neartermism when they believe it is significantly less effective would be unhealthy from an epistemic standpoint. Taking the steps necessary to help neartermism unlock the potential in currently unavailable talent/donor pools I mentioned above would—based on many of the comments on this forum—impair both longtermism’s epistemics and effectiveness. On the other hand, sending the message that neartermist work is second-class work is not going to help with the recruitment or retention of neartermists. It’s not clear to me what neartermism’s growth (or maintenance) pathway is under current circumstances. I think the crux may be that I put a lot of stock in potentially unlocking those pools as a means of creating counterfactual value.
I understand that a split would be sad, although I would view it more as a sign of deep respect in a way—as an honoring of longtermist epistemics and effectiveness by refusing to ask longtermists to compromise them to help neartermism grow. (Yes, some of the reason for the split may have to do with different needs in terms of willingness to accept scandal risk, but that doesn’t mean anyone thinks most longtermists are scandalous.)
As I’ve said before, I agree with you that this looks like a pretty good idea from a neartermist perspective.
I don’t think it’s fair to describe the current meta orgs as being created by neartermists and therefore argue that new orgs could be created by neartermists. These were created by people who were compelled by the fundamental arguments for EA (e.g. the importance of cause prioritization, cosmopolitanism, etc). New meta orgs would have to be created by people who are compelled by these arguments but also not compelled by the current arguments for longtermism, which is empirically a small fraction of the most energetic/ambitious/competent people who are compelled by arguments for the other core EA ideas.
I think this is the strongest argument for why neartermism wouldn’t be substantially weaker without longtermists subsidizing its infrastructure.
Two general points:
There are many neartermists who I deeply respect; for example, I feel deep gratitude to Lewis Bollard from the Open Phil farmed animal welfare team and many other farmed animal welfare people. Also, I think GiveWell seems like a competent org that I expect to keep running competently.
It makes me feel sad to imagine neartermists not wanting to associate with longtermists. I personally feel like I am fundamentally an EA, but I’m only contingently a longtermist. If I didn’t believe I could influence the long run future, I’d probably be working on animal welfare; if I didn’t believe that there were good opportunities there, I’d be working hard to improve the welfare of current humans. If I believed it was the best thing to do, I would totally be living frugally and working hard to EtG for global poverty charities. I think of neartermist EAs as being fellow travelers and kindred spirits, with much more in common with me than almost all other humans.
While neartermists may be a “small fraction” of the pie of “most energetic/ambitious/competent people,” that pie is a lot larger than it was in the 2000s. And while funding is not a replacement for good people, it is (to a point) a force multiplier for the good people you have. The funding situation would be much better than it was in the 2000s. In any event, I am inclined to think that many neartermists would accept B-list infrastructure if that meant that the infrastructure would put neartermism first -- so I don’t think the infrastructure would have to be as good.
I’m just not sure if there is another way to address some of the challenges the original poster alludes to. For the current meta organizations to start promoting neartermism when they believe it is significantly less effective would be unhealthy from an epistemic standpoint. Taking the steps necessary to help neartermism unlock the potential in currently unavailable talent/donor pools I mentioned above would—based on many of the comments on this forum—impair both longtermism’s epistemics and effectiveness. On the other hand, sending the message that neartermist work is second-class work is not going to help with the recruitment or retention of neartermists. It’s not clear to me what neartermism’s growth (or maintenance) pathway is under current circumstances. I think the crux may be that I put a lot of stock in potentially unlocking those pools as a means of creating counterfactual value.
I understand that a split would be sad, although I would view it more as a sign of deep respect in a way—as an honoring of longtermist epistemics and effectiveness by refusing to ask longtermists to compromise them to help neartermism grow. (Yes, some of the reason for the split may have to do with different needs in terms of willingness to accept scandal risk, but that doesn’t mean anyone thinks most longtermists are scandalous.)