Executive summary: Two new calculators allow longtermists to explicitly model and compare the value of reducing existential risk versus the value of mitigating lesser catastrophes, based on the user’s assumptions about civilizational trajectories and prospects for recovery.
Key points:
The simple calculator uses a Markov chain model of civilizational states to estimate the probability of humanity eventually becoming interstellar based on user-specified transition probabilities between states.
The full calculator allows more granular modeling of transitions within and between pre-industrial, industrial, and multi-planetary civilizations, using customizable functions and parameters.
Users can compare the expected value loss from extinction to the value loss from lesser catastrophes, and model the impact of specific interventions or events.
The author provides example outputs showing how results can vary significantly based on optimistic vs. pessimistic assumptions about recovery prospects.
Limitations include the lack of explicit modeling of AI risk, long runtimes for the full calculator, and the need for better tooling for counterfactual exploration. The author invites feedback and contributions.
Longtermists are encouraged to use the calculators to scrutinize common assumptions and share their results to aggregate different perspectives.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: Two new calculators allow longtermists to explicitly model and compare the value of reducing existential risk versus the value of mitigating lesser catastrophes, based on the user’s assumptions about civilizational trajectories and prospects for recovery.
Key points:
The simple calculator uses a Markov chain model of civilizational states to estimate the probability of humanity eventually becoming interstellar based on user-specified transition probabilities between states.
The full calculator allows more granular modeling of transitions within and between pre-industrial, industrial, and multi-planetary civilizations, using customizable functions and parameters.
Users can compare the expected value loss from extinction to the value loss from lesser catastrophes, and model the impact of specific interventions or events.
The author provides example outputs showing how results can vary significantly based on optimistic vs. pessimistic assumptions about recovery prospects.
Limitations include the lack of explicit modeling of AI risk, long runtimes for the full calculator, and the need for better tooling for counterfactual exploration. The author invites feedback and contributions.
Longtermists are encouraged to use the calculators to scrutinize common assumptions and share their results to aggregate different perspectives.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.