Worth noting is that money like this is absolutely capable of shifting people’s beliefs through motivated reasoning. Specifically, I might be tempted to argue for a probability outside the Future Fund’s threshold, and for research I do to be motivated in favor of updating in this direction. Thus, my strategy would be to figure out your beliefs before looking at the contest, then look at the contest to see if you disagree with the Future Fund.
The questions are:
“P(misalignment x-risk|AGI)”: Conditional on AGI being developed by 2070, humanity will go extinct or drastically curtail its future potential due to loss of control of AGI
Worth noting is that money like this is absolutely capable of shifting people’s beliefs through motivated reasoning. Specifically, I might be tempted to argue for a probability outside the Future Fund’s threshold, and for research I do to be motivated in favor of updating in this direction. Thus, my strategy would be to figure out your beliefs before looking at the contest, then look at the contest to see if you disagree with the Future Fund.
The questions are:
“P(misalignment x-risk|AGI)”: Conditional on AGI being developed by 2070, humanity will go extinct or drastically curtail its future potential due to loss of control of AGI
AGI will be developed by January 1, 2043
AGI will be developed by January 1, 2100
To be answered as a percentage.