Minor nitpick: You describe your subjective probabilities in terms of fair betting odds, but aren’t betting odds misleading/confusing, since if AGI kills everyone, there’s no payout? Even loans that are forgiven or paid back depending on the outcome could be confusing, because the value of money could drastically change, although you could try to adjust for that like inflation. I’m not sure such an adjustment would be accurate, though.
Maybe you could talk about betting odds as if you’re an observer outside this world or otherwise assume away (causal and acausal) influence other than through the payout. Or just don’t use betting odds.
Maybe you could talk about betting odds as if you’re an observer outside this world or otherwise assume away (causal and acausal) influence other than through the payout.
Yes, the intention is roughly something like this.
Minor nitpick: You describe your subjective probabilities in terms of fair betting odds, but aren’t betting odds misleading/confusing, since if AGI kills everyone, there’s no payout? Even loans that are forgiven or paid back depending on the outcome could be confusing, because the value of money could drastically change, although you could try to adjust for that like inflation. I’m not sure such an adjustment would be accurate, though.
Maybe you could talk about betting odds as if you’re an observer outside this world or otherwise assume away (causal and acausal) influence other than through the payout. Or just don’t use betting odds.
Yes, the intention is roughly something like this.