Agree with Habryka: I believe there exist decisive reasons to believe in shorter timelines and higher P(doom) than you accept, but I don’t know what your cruxes are.
If you think they’re decisive, shouldn’t you be able to write a persuasive argument without knowing the cruxes, although with (possibly much) more work?
Sure (with a ton of work), though it would almost entirely consist of pointing to others’ evidence and arguments (which I assume Nick would be broadly familiar with but would find less persuasive than I do, so maybe this project also requires imagining all the reasons we might disagree and responding to each of them...).
Agree with Habryka: I believe there exist decisive reasons to believe in shorter timelines and higher P(doom) than you accept, but I don’t know what your cruxes are.
If you think they’re decisive, shouldn’t you be able to write a persuasive argument without knowing the cruxes, although with (possibly much) more work?
Sure (with a ton of work), though it would almost entirely consist of pointing to others’ evidence and arguments (which I assume Nick would be broadly familiar with but would find less persuasive than I do, so maybe this project also requires imagining all the reasons we might disagree and responding to each of them...).